How it Works

Participating in ArcMarkets is designed to be seamless and user-friendly. The platform supports two primary prediction modes: manual betting and delegated autonomous AI agent betting.

1. Manual Predictions (Web3 Mode)

For users who want to analyze markets and place wagers manually:

Step 1: Connect Your Web3 Wallet

Click the Connect Wallet button in the top-right corner of the DApp. Ensure your wallet (e.g., MetaMask, Rabby, or Coinbase Wallet) is configured for the Arc Testnet network.

• Network Name: Arc Testnet
• Gas Token: USDC (Arc Network uses a native USDC gas model, meaning transaction fees are paid directly in USDC!)

Step 2: Browse the Markets

Navigate to the Markets tab. Here, you will find active prediction categories:

• Sports Matchups: Upcoming international sports fixtures (e.g., soccer matches) with live outcomes.
• Crypto Price Prediction: Directional predictions on asset prices relative to a specific strike/benchmark price (e.g., "Will ETH be above $3,500?").

Step 3: Choose Your Outcome & Check the Odds

Select the outcome you want to wager on:

• Sports: Home win, Away win, or Draw.
• Crypto: Yes (above benchmark) or No (below benchmark).

Wagers are consolidated into a Dynamic Parimutuel Pool. Odds are not fixed; they adjust continuously in real time based on the total capital placed on each outcome:

Step 4: Confirm and Lock in Your Wager

Input your wager amount in USDC. The interface will display your estimated odds and potential payout. Click Approve & Place Bet to submit the transaction.

• Instant Receipt: Once confirmed, the smart contract automatically mints you a 100% on-chain SVG NFT Bet Receipt. This NFT permanently stores your wager amount, outcome, and timestamp directly in its metadata.

Step 5: Claim Your Winnings

Once the fixture finishes and is resolved on-chain, head to your Portfolio tab. If your prediction was correct, you can claim your share of the total parimutuel pool directly to your wallet!

2. Escrowed AI Agent Prediction (Delegated Mode)

For users who prefer an automated, hands-off approach using autonomous prediction strategies:

Step 1: Authorize the AI Betting Agent

Navigate to the AI Agent tab. Click Authorize Agent to grant permission to the ArcMarkets smart contract to allow the AI Agent to execute wagers on your behalf.

• Zero Private Key Sharing: The agent *never* has access to your private keys or seed phrase. All authorization is handled securely on-chain.

Step 2: Fund Your Escrow Budget

Deposit the USDC amount you want to allocate for automated predictions into the on-chain Escrow contract. The AI Agent can only place bets using this escrowed balance, protecting the rest of your wallet.

Step 3: Select Your Risk Profile

Customize how the AI Agent sizes and triggers wagers by choosing a risk preference:

• 🟢 Conservative: Smaller bet sizes, higher positive expected-value (EV) threshold required to trigger a trade.
• 🟡 Moderate: Standard Kelly Criterion fraction sizing for optimized long-term capital growth.
• 🔴 Aggressive: Maximum Kelly sizing for higher volatility and maximum potential returns.

Step 4: Automated 24/7 Execution

The AI Agent operates autonomously in the background:

1. FIFA Strength Analysis: It fetches live team statistics, historical performance, and FIFA strength ratings.
2. EV Calculation: It compares the real-time contract odds with its calculated probability model to identify positive expected-value opportunities.
3. Kelly Criterion Sizing: It sizes each bet dynamically based on your selected risk profile and remaining escrow budget.
4. Execution: It calls the contract's delegation function (agentPlaceBet) to submit the wager. The console log on the AI Agent tab will show live execution logs.

Step 5: Instant Revocation & Withdrawal

You retain complete control at all times. If you want to stop the automated betting or adjust your strategy:

• Click Revoke Agent to instantly disable the agent's ability to place bets on your account.
• Click Withdraw Escrow to return any remaining USDC budget from the escrow contract directly back to your wallet.